Could race be an advantage for Obama?

I read a lot of political writing online, and right now everyone is talking about race. Pundits argue that the Bradley effect doesn't exist, or that all the undecideds are white voters who will vote for McCain, or that Obama would be winning in this or that state or county if he was white.

Classic example: The current front page story at Salon.com talks about the surprising support Obama has garnered in a small, white, traditionally conservative town in Ohio. Shockingly, white people are actually considering voting for Obama. Disappointingly, some of them are still racist. Talking about an undecided trucker who voted for McCain and declined to reveal his name: "What finally pushed the trucker over the edge for McCain was his thinking about how Barack Obama's name was so different from the roster of prior presidents." Only a few paragraphs later: "It is simplistic to believe that this tightly knit county would be heavily Democratic if it were not for Obama's race."

Has anyone considered the option that Obama might be ahead in the polls BECAUSE of his race instead of despite it?

1. Black Americans are voting in droves. Obama has energized the black community in an unprecedented way. Previously apathetic voters are standing in line for hours for the chance to vote for this man, often wearing homemade Obama paraphenalia. Without the black voting bloc, Obama would have no chance in the southeastern states.

2. Young (and often white) liberals are thrilled with the opportunity to vote for a black man for President. Obama's supporters are telling pollsters about their high levels of enthusiasm at a much higher rate than McCain supporters. These educated and motivated individuals have contributed massively to Obama's ground game. They are making calls, canvassing all over the country, volunteering on election day, and even holding Obama fundraising parties. America's aspiring political left is throwing the weight of their abilities behind Obama.

3. Obama's unusual personal story makes it seem like he may be able to provide a new perspective to Washington, even though he doesn't have as much political experience as voters are usually looking for in a presidential candidate. The mere fact that he has lived in multiple countries and comes from a mixed racial background gives him an appeal unavailable to McCain, given that "diversity" has become such a powerful buzzword. Obama's diversity has energized the democratic base the way George Bush's born-again Christianity energized the republican base.

I am sure that there are plenty of white (or even Hispanic) voters who hesitate to choose Obama because he is a black man, and winning over those voters is important in states with small minority populations and in any state where the race is close. The final breakdown of the currently "undecided" vote is worthwhile for pundits and journalists to speculate on in a relatively close election.

However, I am not convinced that white voters crossing (or not crossing) racial lines in the voting booth provide the only potentially outcome-changing story in this election. With so many new black registered voters, we could just as easily be asking if black Americans will really come out to vote in such large numbers. Yes, we know that they will vote for Obama, but we don't know how many of them there will be.

As it turns out, black voters have turned out in massive numbers for early voting. CBS, ABC, the Huffington Post, the Charlotte Observer, Salon.com, Politico.com, the New York Times, the Washington Post and even Fox News (to name a few) have all published stories on strong black early voter turnout in the South. Florida's Republican governor has been forced to extend early voting hours to allow more citizens to vote.

The Associated Press offers a great (albeit brief) rundown of the stats and questions surrounding early voting. Why isn't there more analysis like this? Instead, we have articles like "Obama-Inspired Black Voters Warm to Politics" at the NYT. A nice portrayal of the new political energy that Obama has injected into black communities, but completely devoid of any suggestion that it is precisely these voters that may be handing Obama the win. And of course, you can read about undecided white voters in an article just to the right.

When Obama wins on Tuesday, I hope some journalist has the guts to argue that he couldn't have won if he were white.